We elaborate on an alternative representation of conditional probability to the usual tree diagram. We term the representation “turtleback diagram” for its resemblance to the pattern on turtle shells.

Two events are independent if the probability of the first event happening has no impact on the probability of the second event happening. For example, the probability of rolling a 6 on a die will not ...

Tree diagrams are a visual way of showing all possible outcomes of two or more events. Each branch is a possible outcome and is labelled with a probability. Two events are independent if the ...

In decision modeling with influence diagrams, the most challenging task is probability elicitation from domain experts. It is usually very difficult for experts to directly assign precise ...

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Abstract: Fault tree (FT) is the most used approach in reliability and safety studies. In most cases, the quantification of the FT top event is carried out either (i) without considering uncertainties ...