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Naive Bayes classification is a classical machine learning technique to predict a discrete value. For example, you might want to predict the sex of a person (female or male) based on their job type, ...
A common strategy is to use naive Bayes together with a second classification technique such as logistic regression. You perform each classification separately then compute a consensus prediction.
How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple ...