In Microsoft Excel, using a scatter chart allows you to plot the data points against the probability of achieving each observed data point.

Backtesting of a probability of default model in the point-in-time–through-the-cycle context Mark Rubtsov Need to know We claim PD model correctness is equivalent to unbiasedness; given unbiasedness, ...

A forward looking point-in-time probability of default term structure model is proposed for IFRS9 expected credit loss estimation and CCAR stress testing. The model is characterized by a rating level ...

Different approaches to default probability There are two main paradigms through which to view Default Probability: Through-the-Cycle (TTC) and Point-in-Time (PIT).