Until the Jackson Hole pivot, the Fed prioritized inflation risks over growth, but successive weak employment reports and downward revisions revealed a stalling labor market. Tariff-driven cost-push ...

Fed Governor Waller recently emphasized that resolving the growth-employment split will guide policy. We believe the resolution will come through lower growth estimates. This supports maintaining a ...

Combines BCA’s macroeconomic and geopolitical expertise to focus on the market-relevant policies of the world’s largest economy and financial market. We emphasize opportunities as well as risks for ...

Unique sector and style allocation framework that blends macroeconomic, fundamental, and technical analysis to provide actionable investment recommendations. We cover broad market trends that drive ...

Our time-tested investment frameworks, out-of-the-box thinking, and culture of internal debates enables us to see around corners. For 75 years, we've been more right than wrong, which we've been ...

The financial industry’s premier geopolitical research. We use hard data to calculate scenario probabilities and market impacts for geopolitical risks and opportunities. Ukraine’s economy is small but ...

Critical input for global and EM investors, providing global macro investment themes and recommendations for EM equities, currencies, and fixed income. Clients have access to unique investment themes ...

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Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer and business confidence have plunged as policy uncertainty and inflation ...

Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025. First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of ...

The stock-bond yield correlation is stabilizing after months of jitters, setting the stage for renewed Treasury demand as recession risks build. A negative correlation typically points to inflation ...

China’s economy and equity market have increasingly diverged, with new economy sectors and tech stocks outperforming, while the broader domestic economy remains stuck in a deflationary cycle.